by Daniel Brouse
July 16, 2025
The future forecast is, paradoxically, more optimistic than it has been in decades -- but not for reasons most would celebrate. Ironically, there is a silver lining when it comes to breaking the climate trajectory: the collapse of capitalism may outpace climate collapse. This would reduce emissions and consumption by force rather than by choice, potentially saving us from ourselves.
Strangely, this gives me greater optimism than I have felt in recent history. You cannot prepare for the collapse of the climate; death, in that scenario, is inevitable. But I am well prepared for the collapse of capitalism -- and you can be too. While the end of the capitalist system will be disruptive and chaotic, it offers a narrow but real path to slowing climate breakdown, preserving what is left, and building something more resilient for those who remain.
The reality is that most humans will not survive the climate collapse if we continue on our current path. We are likely facing a future where 90% of mammals will perish and 100% of humans could be wiped out due to heat stress, violent rain, crop failures, water scarcity, flooding, disease spread, and social collapse as warming accelerates.
Any survival guidance shared now is only for a short-term window to buy time, not as a permanent solution. Based on current trajectories:
There is an 80% chance catastrophic climate collapse will begin within 30 years.
There is a 98% probability it will occur within this century if we do not immediately end fossil fuel combustion and deforestation.
Ironically, there is "good news" regarding breaking the climate trajectory--the collapse of capitalism may outpace climate collapse, reducing emissions and consumption by force rather than choice.
The climate crisis itself is cracking the foundations of capitalism:
The insurance industry forecasts its own collapse within 30 yearsdue to uninsurable climate risks.
States like Florida, California, and Louisiana have abandoned private market capitalism for socialized hazard insurance as large swathes of zip codes become uninsurable.
Agricultural yields and supply chains are failing, destabilizing food markets.
Migration crises triggered by heat and flooding are straining labor markets and social systems.
However, capitalism's collapse remains too slow relative to the pace of climate breakdown.
Since 2024, the domino effect of tipping points--glacier melt, AMOC slowdown, Amazon dieback, and wet-bulb heat events--has become undeniably visible, accelerating climate collapse exponentially.
This means even if emissions stopped today, feedback loops will continue to intensify warming.
To meaningfully slow climate breakdown, capitalism would need to collapse within the next 2-5 years to halt emissions and consumption rapidly enough to matter.
Who would have thought Trump could be the "savior" here?
His policies--exponential national debt expansion, reckless fiscal decisions, the largest regressive tax (tariff) increases in history, anti-immigration crackdowns, and mass deportations--have accelerated systemic instability.
The net effect:
The probability of capitalism collapsing within the next 2-5 years has now risen to 78%.
If this collapse occurs before the climate dominoes irreversibly lock in additional degrees of warming, it may reduce emissions by force, giving the planet a slim chance to stabilize below the worst thresholds of uninhabitability.
We are living in the optimism paradox:
The collapse of capitalism may be the only thing that can slow the collapse of climate systems.
But the window for capitalism to collapse in time is narrow and closing.
We must prepare for what comes next, both to navigate the collapse and to envision what system might replace capitalism in a way that aligns with planetary limits.
* Our climate model -- which incorporates complex social-ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, non-linear system -- projects that global temperatures could rise by up to 9°C (16.2°F) within this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, signaling a dramatic acceleration of warming.
We analyze how human activities (such as deforestation, fossil fuel use, and land development) interact with ecological processes (including carbon cycling, water availability, and biodiversity loss) in ways that amplify one another. These interactions do not follow simple cause-and-effect patterns; instead, they create cascading, interconnected impacts that can rapidly accelerate system-wide change, sometimes abruptly. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing risks and designing effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
What you can do today. How to save the planet.
The Sustainability Challenge: Walk the Poop Before You Talk the Transition
Solutions to the Fossil Fuel Economy and the Myths Accelerating Climate and Economic Collapse